According to Cisco, worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years period, reaching 10.8 exabytes per month – or an annual run rate of about 130 exabytes by 2016 -the expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a projected surge in the number of mobile Internet-connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations).
The forecast predicts an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic, equivalent to 33 billion DVDs, 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files (music/audio) and 813 quadrillion short message service (SMS) text messages. This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 percent spanning the forecast period. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012.
Key Regional Growth Projections:
- Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate with a CAGR of 104 percent, or 36-fold growth.
- Asia-Pacific will have an 84 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
- Central and Eastern Europe will have an 83 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
- Latin America will have a 79 percent CAGR, or 18-fold growth.
- North America will have a 75 percent CAGR, or 17-fold growth.
- Western Europe will have a 68 percent CAGR, or 14-fold growth.
The Mobile Network Through 2016:
- Monthly global mobile data traffic will surpass 10 exabytes in 2016.
- Over 100 million smartphone users will belong to the “gigabyte club” (over 1 GB per month) by 2012.
- The number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the world’s population in 2012.
- The average mobile connection speed will surpass 1 Mbps in 2014.
- Due to increased usage on smartphones, handsets will exceed 50 percent of mobile data traffic in 2014.
- Monthly global mobile data traffic will surpass 10 exabytes in 2016.
- Monthly mobile tablet traffic will surpass 1 exabyte per month in 2016.
- Tablets will exceed 10 percent of global mobile data traffic in 2016.
- China will exceed 10 percent of global mobile data traffic in 2016.
